"Global warming is projected to reach 1.5°C in the near future under nearly all scenarios and modeled pathways, driven by cumulative CO₂ emissions."
This stark conclusion from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2023) highlights the urgency of addressing climate change. Even under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-1.9), the global average temperature is expected to reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Under a medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), the average global temperature is projected to rise to 2.7°C by the end of the 21st century. As global warming intensifies, regional variations in average climate conditions and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to become increasingly widespread and pronounced.
The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the "lungs of the Earth," is bearing the brunt of these changes. In 2024, a combination of escalating global temperatures and the El Niño phenomenon has turned vast areas of the Amazon into a veritable tinderbox, amplifying the risk of wildfires and threatening one of the planet's most vital ecosystems.
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| Projected Changes in Annual Maximum Daily Temperature and Total Soil Moisture Under 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C Global Warming Scenarios (Compared to 1850–1900) |
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| Groundwater Wetness Percentile Distribution Across South America (October 7, 2024) |
Impacts of Global Warming and El Niño: Record Drought in South America's Amazon Region (2024)
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report highlights projections of changes in maximum daily temperatures and soil moisture levels as the Earth's average temperature rises. The temperature on the hottest days of the year is expected to increase most significantly in mid-latitude, semi-arid regions, and South America's monsoon areas. Additionally, the annual soil moisture projections indicate significant reductions in moisture levels in regions such as Central and Northern South America, the Mediterranean, and the south-central United States.
In October 2024, a record-breaking drought affected vast regions of South America, particularly the Amazon River and surrounding rainforests. Prolonged dry conditions, fueled by months of reduced rainfall, led to widespread wildfires, reduced crop yields, and diminished water levels in dams. The drought significantly impacted Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, with some regions experiencing disruptions in hydropower generation, causing energy shortages.
The prolonged drought was exacerbated by the global El Niño event that occurred during the latter half of 2023 and into the first half of 2024. Abnormally warm subsurface water layers in the equatorial Pacific altered rainfall patterns, significantly reducing precipitation during the dry season (July, August, and September) in South America and the Amazon rainforest.
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| Satellite Image Comparison of Adjacent Regions in Colombia, Peru, and Brazil: September 2021 vs. September 2024 |
NASA Satellite Data Analysis: Record Low Water Levels in South American Lakes During 2024 Drought
According to NASA's satellite data, water levels in lakes such as Tefe, Mamia, Mamori, and Faro have reached record lows. Additionally, numerous rivers and lakes across the region have experienced significant drops in water levels.
The 2024 drought, which appears to have been intensified by El Niño and ongoing climate change, has been described as more extreme than previous events. The Brazilian Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) reported that the scale of this drought is approximately twice as severe as the one caused by the 2015–2016 El Niño event.
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| Locations of Reported Wildfires (September 28–30, 2024) |
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| Satellite Image of Wildfire Smoke Captured by NASA |
2024 Amazon Basin: Severe Fire Warnings Become Reality
At the start of 2024, several meteorological research institutions and scientific organizations across South America warned that the Amazon Basin would face extreme fire conditions during the dry season. These warnings proved accurate as, between July and October 2024, vast plumes of smoke from wildfires engulfed the southern Amazon, large enough to be captured by satellite imagery.
The Pantanal region, spanning southern Brazil, Paraguay, and parts of Bolivia, experienced numerous wildfires of varying sizes. Prolonged drought conditions, reduced soil moisture, and declining groundwater levels further exacerbated the fires, enabling them to spread more rapidly and across wider areas.
These conditions highlight the devastating impact of reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells on one of the most vital ecosystems on the planet.
Photo and content sources: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, earthobservatory.nasa.gov, Displacement Tracking Matrix(DTM Sur America)
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