In 2024, the global average temperature rose by 1.55°C (1.46–1.62°C) above pre-industrial levels, making it highly likely to be recorded as the hottest year Earth has experienced in at least several millennia.
It’s important to note that an individual year reaching the 1.5°C threshold does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is a stark indicator that we are rapidly approaching the internationally agreed-upon limit to restrict the planet's average temperature rise within this boundary.
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| Global Warming 1850 to 2024 |
2024: Month-by-Month Record-Breaking Temperatures
An analysis of global monthly average temperatures reveals that January through June of 2024 set new all-time records. This trend continued the streak of the hottest months observed during the 15-month period that began in 2023.
Globally, temperatures rose significantly, with some regions experiencing conditions similar to previous years. However, the hottest areas recorded temperature increases of up to 2.3°C above pre-industrial levels. Countries such as China, Canada, Brazil, South Korea, and over 100 others experienced their hottest year on record. This extreme heat directly impacted approximately 3.3 billion people, highlighting the pervasive and severe effects of global warming.
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| Monthly global temperature anomalies |
The Complex Causes Behind Record-Breaking Heat in 2023 and 2024
The precise causes of the record-breaking high temperatures in 2023 and 2024 remain under investigation in the scientific community. However, a range of complex factors is believed to contribute, including greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, the effects of El Niño, and changes in cloud reflectivity.
Sharp increases in the Earth's average temperature have been observed in the past. For instance, NASA's records show a notable rise from 0.94°C in 2013 to 1.28°C in 2016, and more recently from 1.16°C in 2022 to 1.55°C in 2024. These rapid temperature escalations highlight the urgent need to understand and address the underlying causes driving these changes.
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| Global Mean Temperature Anomaly and Uncertainty(°C) |
Global Warming Trends: Land, Ocean, and the Impact of El Niño in 2024
According to the Berkeley Earth dataset, the Earth's average land temperature in 2024 was approximately 2.3°C above pre-industrial levels, while the ocean temperature rose by 1.1°C. Land areas, where the majority of the global population resides, have warmed about 70% faster than the oceans and have experienced a warming rate approximately 40% faster than the global average since 1970.
In 2024, the year began with average global temperatures already exceeding the 1.5°C threshold, driven by the peak of an El Niño event early in the year. From July 2023 through December 2024, most monthly temperatures remained above 1.5°C, resulting in widespread extreme weather events. These included significant weather anomalies and natural disasters of varying scales across the globe, underscoring the intensifying consequences of climate change.
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| Relative to 1951-1980 Averages - Temperature Anomaly(°C) |
Key Drivers of Rapid Global Temperature Increases
The sharp rise in global temperatures has been attributed to several complex and interrelated factors, including:
- Unusual El Niño-La Niña Patterns: The transition from a triple-dip La Niña event to an El Niño phenomenon extended the temperature increase period by approximately 10% during 2023–2024.
- Reduction in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions and Aerosol Concentrations: The 2020 low-sulfur shipping fuel regulation and a rapid decline in sulfur emissions from China have contributed to a chain reaction of atmospheric changes, compounded by continued greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
- 2022 Tonga Underwater Volcano Eruption: The eruption released approximately 150 million tons of water vapor and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, influencing radiative forcing and atmospheric composition.
- Solar Cycle and Atmospheric Conditions: The 11-year solar cycle, characterized by alternating solar minima and maxima, has influenced global temperatures. Additionally, the low concentration of Saharan dust during the early summer of 2023 may have contributed to increased solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface.
These interconnected factors demonstrate the complexity of the drivers behind the record-breaking global temperatures observed in recent years.
Photo and content sources: CarbonBrief - State of the climate: 2024 sets a new record as the first year above 1.5C
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